Email Plan Tool

BLUF: The Email Plan is a monthly planning and forecasting tool that combines scheduled campaign data with real revenue results to project whether your email program will hit its revenue target — and if not, where the gap is.

The Email Plan is a monthly planning and forecasting view for a shop's email program. It pulls live campaign, flow, list, and segment data alongside daily email performance, then lays out one month at a time: what's scheduled, what each send is expected to generate, what it actually generated, and how the whole month is tracking against its revenue target.

This tool answers one question for the email team: "Given what we've scheduled and what's already happened, where is this month going to land, and is that good enough?"

Core Concepts​

The Email Plan is built on four core numbers. Understanding the distinction between them is essential to using the tool effectively.

The single most important distinction: Planned is the forecast for the calendar as drawn; Projected is the number that tracks toward the real month-end total. Early in the month, before any campaigns send, Projected is approximately equal to Planned plus flow estimates. By month-end, almost every campaign has fired, so Projected converges to Actual.

Target Card​

The Target card serves as the month's scoreboard and is composed of four sections.

Revenue Doughnut​

The large figure in the center of the doughnut is Projected, and the doughnut fills to Projected ÷ Target. The badge underneath shows the Email Target.

Projected is computed as:

Projected = Σ campaigns (Actual if already sent, else Planned)
          + Σ live flows (estimated monthly revenue)

A campaign that has already gone out contributes its real revenue; a campaign still in the future contributes its planned estimate; and each live flow contributes its estimated monthly revenue. This makes Projected the most reliable "where are we headed" figure available at any point in the month.

Total Order Revenue​

Total Order Revenue is a realized number, not a forecast. It represents the shop's total order revenue across all channels, not just email. The progress bar fills toward the store-wide revenue target, which is a separate and larger target than the email-specific Target.

This metric exists on the card to provide context: it answers "how is the whole business doing this month," allowing the email number to be read against the store's overall goal rather than in isolation.

Actual Month-to-Date (MTD)​

Actual MTD is the real email revenue earned so far this month, summed from the daily performance rows that fall within the selected month. Its progress bar fills toward the email Target. This is the cleanest "how much has email actually generated so far" figure on the page.

Plan Gap​

The Plan gap is calculated as:

Plan gap = Projected − Target

It measures the best current projection of the month against the goal allocated to email. A negative gap means the current trajectory is on track to miss the target; a positive gap means it's on track to beat it.

It helps to keep the three comparisons on this page separate, as they answer different questions:

• Actual MTD vs Target → "How much has email banked so far?" (the Actual MTD bar)
• Projected vs Target → "Where will the month end up?" (the doughnut and Plan gap)
• Actual vs Planned → "Did this specific campaign beat its estimate?" (in the Campaign Calendar)

Campaign Calendar​

The calendar lays out every scheduled and sent campaign by day. Each campaign carries two revenue figures:

• Planned — the estimate, computed as audience size × the RPR benchmark for the campaign's type. The RPR ("revenue per recipient") for each type is derived from campaigns of that type that have already sent and have real conversion data, so it is a data-backed expectation rather than a guess. If a campaign's type has no history yet, the system falls back to the day's forecast revenue.
• Actual — the real conversion value from the email provider once the campaign has sent. Zero until it does.

Against Planned​

The "against planned" comparison tells you whether a campaign beat or missed the estimate set for it:

Planned for a campaign = audience size × RPR benchmark for its type

Because Planned is anchored to the campaign's audience size and the typical revenue per recipient for that type of campaign (Promotion, Product, Content, Loyalty, Resend), "against planned" effectively answers: did this send earn more or less per recipient than campaigns of its type usually do? A campaign that beats planned is outperforming the type benchmark for its audience; one that misses is underperforming what that audience size should have produced.

Editing a campaign's audience or type in the calendar immediately recomputes its Planned figure (and therefore the month's Projected and Plan gap), since both inputs feed the audience × RPR formula.

Flows​

The Flows section tracks lifecycle automations (Welcome Series, Abandoned Cart, Post Purchase, etc.) rather than one-off campaigns. For each active flow it shows:

• Recipients, RPR, conversion rate — from real performance data over the analysis window
• Benchmark RPR — the agency benchmark RPR for that flow type. Each flow type has its own benchmark; flows with no recognized type use the blended benchmark
• Gap — flow RPR − benchmark RPR. A negative gap means the flow is underperforming the benchmark for its type
• Estimated Monthly Revenue — the flow's daily average revenue projected across the full month. This figure feeds the flow portion of Projected on the Target card (only flows marked active are counted)

The system also detects missing flows: lifecycle flow types that have no active flow in the account. These appear as placeholder rows so the team can see coverage gaps. You can manually assign a flow type to a flow; once assigned, the automatic classifier will not overwrite your choice.

Email Health Overview​

A quick read on list and deliverability health:

• Spam Rate — spam complaints as a percentage of total sends
• Net List Health — inflow minus outflow (new subscribers and segment additions, minus unsubscribes and removals)
• Inflow / Outflow — the components behind net list health

Alongside it, a Smart Insights card surfaces an AI-generated headline, bullet points, and summary about the current plan.

Interpreting Results​

High-Performing Campaigns​

• Above Planned: Campaign Actual exceeds Planned — the campaign outperformed the type benchmark for its audience size
• Strong RPR: Revenue per recipient is above the type benchmark
• Positive Flow Gap: Flow RPR exceeds the benchmark for its flow type

Benchmark Comparisons​

• RPR Benchmarks: Derived from historical campaign performance by type (Promotion, Product, Content, Loyalty, Resend)
• Flow Benchmarks: Agency-established baselines for each flow type (Welcome Series, Abandoned Cart, Post Purchase, etc.)
• Gap Analysis: Compare per-campaign or per-flow RPR against its benchmark to identify over- and under-performers

Month Tracking​

• Early Month: Projected ≈ Planned + flow estimates. Focus on whether the calendar as drawn is sufficient to hit Target
• Mid Month: Projected blends Actual for sent campaigns with Planned for remaining ones. Watch the Plan gap to see if you're on track
• Late Month: Projected converges toward Actual as remaining campaigns fire. The Plan gap becomes the final score

Technical Details​

Data Sources​

• Campaign Data: Campaign schedule, audience size, type classification, and conversion values from the email service provider
• Flow Data: Active flow performance metrics including recipients, RPR, and conversion rates
• Daily Performance: Per-day email revenue aggregated from the shop's daily performance data
• Revenue Targets: Monthly email allocation and store-wide revenue targets from the allocation layer

Calculation Logic​

Processing Notes​

• Revenue targets are set by the allocation layer and are fixed for the month
• Planned values are recalculated whenever a campaign's audience size or type is edited
• Projected updates automatically as campaigns send and actual revenue is recorded
• Flow classification can be overridden manually; manual assignments are preserved
• Missing flow detection identifies lifecycle types with no active flow so coverage gaps are visible

FAQ​

What is the difference between Projected and Planned?​

Planned is the static estimate of the calendar as drawn (audience × type RPR, summed). It only changes when the calendar is edited. Projected is the live month-end estimate that uses real revenue for campaigns that have already sent, planned estimates for campaigns that haven't, and live-flow estimates. Projected converges toward Actual as the month plays out, while Planned remains unchanged unless the calendar is edited.

How is "against planned" calculated?​

It compares a campaign's real revenue (Actual) against its planned estimate (audience × the RPR benchmark for its type). It tells you whether the send beat or missed what the type benchmark predicted for that audience size.

How is the Plan gap calculated?​

The Plan gap is Projected − Target, not Actual − Planned. Actual is real earned revenue (a sum of daily rows, not a forecast) and is already incorporated into Projected for the sends that have fired. The gap measures projected month-end performance against the email target.

Is Total Order Revenue a forecast?​

No. It is the shop's actual total order revenue across all channels, shown against the store-wide revenue target. It exists to give whole-business context, separate from the email-specific target.

What happens when I edit a campaign's audience or type?​

Changing a campaign's audience size or type immediately recalculates its Planned figure. Since Planned feeds into Projected (for campaigns that haven't sent yet), this also updates the month's Projected and Plan gap.

How are flow types classified?​

Flow types are automatically classified based on the flow's behavior and configuration. If the automatic classification is incorrect, you can manually assign a flow type. Manual assignments are preserved and will not be overwritten by the classifier.